Logging Has Worn Down the Amazon
Its Collapse Point Now Sits Near 1.5C

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For years the standard scientific view held that the Amazon would slide into irreversible change once global warming reached 3.7 to 4 degrees Celsius. A study published in Nature in May reworks that assumption. A team led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) found that, where logging has advanced, the collapse point falls to between 1.5 and 1.9 degrees, overlapping almost exactly with the temperature band the Paris Agreement aims for.

A Chain of Drying

Why would cutting trees lower the threshold for collapse? The mechanism the study describes runs like this. Amazon trees draw water up through their roots and release it into the air, sustaining a cycle that produces their own rain. When forest is lost, atmospheric moisture drops and that self-made rainfall cycle weakens. The same amount of warming then puts heavier stress on the remaining stands. Lead author Niko Wunderling said logging strips the forest's resilience more than anyone expected.

Where the Forest Stands Now

Roughly 17 to 18 percent of the Amazon has already been lost. The deforestation rate at which this study sees collapse risk climbing sharply is 22 to 28 percent. The gap is only a few points. In the worst case, the critical point could arrive in the 2040s, Mongabay reported. That is not an extreme "if we do nothing" figure but a "if the current pace holds" one.

In short, the forest is already close to the edge of the danger zone.

COP30's Promise and the Reality

Last November, at COP30 in Belem in northern Brazil, the government reaffirmed its pledge to reach net-zero deforestation by 2030. Yet the 2025 numbers are harsh. The area cleared in May alone rose 92 percent year on year, and the annual total kept climbing. The mining of minerals for renewable energy, lithium, nickel and rare earths, continues to add extraction pressure. Closing the gap between the pledge and what is happening on the ground, through workable policy, remains the largest task left.

The forest has always endured. It may be our math on how much slack it had that was wrong.

※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.