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On May 27, Brazil announced it would invest 75 million dollars to upgrade BR-319, the highway that runs across the Amazon rainforest. Alongside it the government laid out a conservation plan, promising to monitor a 50-km band on each side of the road. But environmental groups do not take this side-by-side of development and protection at face value. Opened in 1976 and still largely unpaved, this trunk road sits at the center of a debate that is unsettling Brazil’s footing ahead of COP30 this autumn.

Why BR-319, and why now

BR-319 is a roughly 870-km artery linking Manaus, in Amazonas state (population over two million), to Rondônia. Pave it and access to isolated Manaus changes overnight, with logistics costs falling too. President Lula’s government frames the project in terms of bringing the benefits of development to the north.

The question is what follows once the asphalt is down. As Amazon development in the 1970s and 80s showed, a trunk road branches into side roads, settlement speeds up, and illegal logging and mining reach deep into the forest. In 2024 the Brazilian Climate Observatory went to court to revoke the preliminary license. Its argument: prior consultation with Indigenous peoples and a climate-impact assessment were both skipped. The road is said to affect 69 Indigenous territories and more than 18,000 Indigenous people.

A tipping point comes into view

In May, a paper in the journal Mongabay issued a fresh warning. If 22 to 28% of the rainforest is lost and global warming reaches 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius, the Amazon could cross a tipping point as early as the 2040s. That tipping point is the state in which the forest can no longer regenerate on its own and a drier, savanna-like shift accelerates. Even now, trees are estimated to be falling at a pace of five every second.

Adding to the pressure, Brazil’s Congress passed a bill banning the use of satellite imagery when regulating commercial use of illegally cleared land. It cuts into the very enforcement of environmental rules, with the executive and the legislature now facing opposite ways. At Belém (COP30) this autumn, the Lula government wants to stand before the world as a guardian of the Amazon. But when the BR-319 investment and Congress’s anti-environment bill make the headlines at the same time, that banner fades. Take the share of domestic development, or keep the international climate pledge. Which way Brazil leans will be clear not from a speech at the year-end conference but from how much forest is cut down in this rainy season.

Before a meter of the road is even paved, Amazon trees are already falling at five every second.

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※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.