Brazil's Presidential Race and Its Global Stakes
An October Showdown Carrying BRICS and Climate Diplomacy

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On July 25, 2026, Brazil's Liberal Party (PL) formally nominated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate at its party convention. On August 2, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to formally announce his bid for a fourth term at the Workers' Party (PT) convention. With just over 70 days until the first round of voting on October 4, the campaign is now fully underway. And the weight of this election goes well beyond domestic economic and social policy. Brazil is a leading member of BRICS, pursuing a multipolar foreign policy, and in November 2025 it hosted COP30, the world's central climate negotiation, in Belém at the mouth of the Amazon. October's result will help determine where Brazil stands in the world.

A Formal Campaign That Began with the July 25 Convention

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) set the window for party conventions from July 20 to August 5, during which each party must confirm its candidate. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro was put forward as the rallying point of the right in place of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was stripped of his political rights in 2023 and then convicted in 2025 of plotting a coup, receiving a 27-year prison sentence and being jailed. We covered how the field of candidates took shape in our earlier report.

A poll by Quaest conducted July 10–13 among 2,004 respondents (margin of error ±2 points) put Lula at 40% and Flávio at 28% in a first-round scenario. In a runoff scenario, the gap narrows: Lula 45% to Flávio's 37%. That said, the size of the gap varies from pollster to pollster, so no single number should be read as definitive.

The main domestic issues are the economy and public security. The World Bank projects Brazil's growth at 1.6% for 2026. Household finances are strained: according to credit bureau Serasa, roughly 82 million people were in default as of March 2026—more than half of all adults. The Flávio camp is campaigning on fiscal discipline and privatization, while the Lula camp is consolidating support around its record on social programs.

What Happens to BRICS Ties?

Under Lula, Brazil has raised its profile in multilateral diplomacy as a coordinating force within the enlarged BRICS. China is currently Brazil's largest export destination, and Lula has lent measured support to a multipolar international order through BRICS while maintaining relations with the United States.

If Flávio wins, observers point to the possibility that—like his father's administration—he would prioritize relations with Washington, changing Brazil's distance from China and BRICS. The effects could be broad, spanning trade patterns, foreign investment, and voting behavior in international bodies. The regional context is shifting too: in Peru, the Keiko Fujimori administration took office in July 2026, and in Colombia, president-elect De la Espriella is due to be inaugurated on August 7. Depending on Brazil's choice, this could mark a turning point in which Latin America's diplomatic center of gravity tilts decisively toward the United States.

Climate Diplomacy After COP30

The other variable is climate diplomacy. Brazil hosted COP30 in Belém from November 10 to 21, 2025, placing Amazon protection at the heart of international negotiations. Commitments such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a mechanism designed to channel long-term funding into tropical forest conservation, became its signature initiatives. COP31 in November 2026 will be held in Antalya, Turkey, co-hosted by Turkey and Australia—but until Brazil hands the presidency over to COP31, it remains at the center of global climate diplomacy.

That is precisely why the election will test the continuity of the promises made in Belém. The first round is October 4, the runoff October 25, and the new administration takes office in January 2027. If power changes hands, a review of Amazon protection policies and of contributions to and governance of the TFFF cannot be ruled out. Whether the credibility Brazil built as COP president carries over to the next government is a point climate negotiators around the world are watching closely.

My Take

What I keep in mind when reading this election is its dual structure: a domestic verdict and a global wager. Voters at the ballot box will be thinking about prices, security, and jobs—but the sum of those votes could move the cohesion of BRICS, the US–China tug-of-war, and the fate of tropical forest finance for the Amazon. An election decided on domestic issues triggering tectonic shifts in foreign policy: it happened with Jair Bolsonaro's victory in 2018, and it may be about to happen again on a larger scale.

The polls also demand careful reading. Looking only at the 12-point first-round gap, the race can seem settled; but the runoff scenario narrows it to 8 points, and the margin differs by pollster. With more than two months to go, that is a level that can move on a single economic release or a news cycle about prosecutions and imprisonment. The indicators worth watching: Lula's declaration and the emphasis of his speech at the PT convention on August 2, the evolution of the polls tracked by AS/COA and others, and how Brazil handles its TFFF funding pledges in the preparatory negotiations for COP31. Follow those three, and the meaning of October comes into much sharper relief.

Glossary

convenção partidária = a party's nominating convention, held within the TSE-mandated window to formally confirm its candidate. segundo turno = the runoff; if no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the top two face off. inadimplência = default; the state of having overdue payments registered with credit bureaus. BRICS = the grouping of emerging powers built around Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, recently expanded with new members. TFFF (Tropical Forest Forever Facility) = a Brazil-led fund concept to channel long-term financing into tropical forest conservation.

The question is not only who will be president—it is where Brazil will stand in the world.

※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.