Colombia's presidential election upended the polls. In the first round on May 31, 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella — a lawyer and newcomer to front-line politics — came out on top with 43.7%, followed by Iván Cepeda, the left-wing senator President Gustavo Petro had named as his successor, with 40.9%. Neither reached a majority, so the contest goes to a runoff on June 21. Because pre-election surveys had pointed to a Cepeda lead, local coverage described a mix of celebration, shock and skepticism.
The night the polls got it wrong
None of the 13 candidates won an outright majority. In Colombia, if no one clears 50%, the top two go to a runoff. Third place went to Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Centre with 6.9%. In effect the vote split heavily between de la Espriella on the right and Cepeda on the left — and against expectations, the right finished first.
What matters now is the shape of the runoff: where the centre and right-leaning votes that scattered in the first round will flow. Leading the first round is no guarantee; runoff reversals are common.
Two very different candidates
De la Espriella, 47, is a lawyer with no traditional party machine behind him. He ran on a hard-line, tough-on-crime platform, and supporters and critics alike compare him to El Salvador's President Bukele. He has also been reported as favorable toward US President Trump. The message of "restoring order" landed with voters anxious about security.
Cepeda is a veteran of the left who has long worked on human-rights issues, and Petro backed him as his own successor. So this runoff is less a duel between two men than a vote on whether to continue Petro's four years — or turn back.
The real question: what to do with "Petro's four years"
Petro took office in 2022 as Colombia's first left-wing president, promising reforms to health, pensions and labor. Much of it stalled in Congress, and his term is nearing its end. The health-system (EPS) reform is the emblem — a four-year bill now on the edge of expiring with the legislative session. If Cepeda wins, that course largely continues; if de la Espriella wins, expect a pivot toward security and the economy and a likely rollback.
What it means for health and social protection
What I'm watching most closely is how a change of government would land on health and social-protection reform. With Colombia's health system already shaking, a shift in direction hits hardest the people who depend on continuous rehabilitation, medication and specialist care — those with disabilities or chronic conditions.
The hard part is that both pushing reform through and stopping it can carry side effects for those people. Rebuild too fast and the system seizes up; halt it and the current dysfunction stays. Whichever way the vote goes, the real test is designing a transition that doesn't leave patients behind.
Toward June 21
The first round defied the surveys; the runoff is even harder to read. Where the centre votes land, turnout, and whether voters bet on "change" or "stability" will decide it. On June 21, Colombia chooses whether to steer right or left — with consequences that reach across the region.
I'll be watching not only who wins, but what they leave behind once they do.
References
- Al Jazeera, "Celebration, shock and scepticism follow Colombia's presidential election" (2026-06-02) — aljazeera.com
- NPR, "Right-wing candidate pulls ahead in first round" (2026-06-01) — npr.org
- CNN, "Colombian presidency goes to runoff" (2026-05-31) — cnn.com
- TIME, "Colombia Presidential Election Heads to Run-Off" (2026-06-01) — time.com
- AS/COA, "Poll Tracker: Colombia's 2026 Presidential Election" — as-coa.org
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.