Honduras Rethinks Its Ties With China
Will the 2023 Break With Taiwan Reverse?

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Honduras, which cut ties with Taiwan and recognized China in 2023, has entered a phase of questioning that choice. President Nasry Asfura, a pro-Taiwan figure who won the late-2025 election and took office in January 2026, has said he will review the agreements signed with Beijing, as Bloomberg and other outlets reported in May. Disappointment that the hoped-for economic benefits never arrived is driving the rethink. It is also inseparable from a larger story: the US-China diplomatic contest in Central America.

The 2023 Break and Its Miscalculation

In 2023, the year after taking office, then-President Xiomara Castro severed more than seven decades of diplomatic relations with Taiwan and established ties with China. The stated reason was the promise of a larger economic partnership. In reality, investment and infrastructure fell short of expectations, and criticism grew at home that it had been a failed bet.

The blow to agricultural exporters was especially sharp: shrimp exports to Taiwan reportedly collapsed, and Chinese purchases did not fill the gap. The thin economic payoff is the central reason the policy is now being reconsidered.

A Pro-Taiwan Government and a Pledge to Review

Asfura's victory in the 2025 election set the diplomatic map in motion. He was openly pro-Taiwan throughout the campaign, arguing that Honduras was far better off economically when it had ties with Taipei. Since taking office, he has said the country needs to examine the agreements made with China before any final decision.

The United States is part of the backdrop. Asfura won with the endorsement of President Trump, and the Trump administration's push to have Latin American countries keep their distance from China is seen as shaping Honduras' choices. Reports also point to a review of Chinese-made telecommunications equipment and talks over adopting US technology.

A Reversal That Will Not Be Easy

Returning to Taiwan, however, is not simple. The worry that flipping positions within just a few years would damage the country's international credibility cuts across party lines. There are still forces in congress that want to keep the deals with Beijing, and the government cannot decide alone.

China is not staying silent either. Pressure continues through the terms of loans and agreements, and unwinding the relationship with Beijing carries costs. As of the May reporting, there was still no official decision on a return to Taiwan.

A Microcosm of Diplomatic Rivalry in Central America

What happens in Honduras is a microcosm of US-China diplomatic rivalry in Central America. El Salvador and Panama have already broken with Taiwan and chosen China. Guatemala and Paraguay, by contrast, still recognize Taiwan, and Paraguay in South America remains one of Taipei's most important allies.

If Honduras returns to Taiwan, it would be a diplomatic setback for China's One China principle. If it stays with Beijing, it would mean Washington's lobbying fell short. How the United States is involved behind the scenes, and which way Honduras steers, is where the focus now lies.

Glossary

The 'One China principle' refers to Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China and that diplomatic partners must break ties with Taipei. In Spanish, China is China and Taiwan is Taiwán, and establishing relations is rendered as relaciones diplomáticas. Central America (Centroamérica) is known as a region where Taiwan and China have long competed for recognition.

Honduras' diplomatic hesitation is a microcosm of how small states get pulled apart by competition among the great powers.

※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.