Exports to China Up 25%
What IDB Data Reveals About Latin America’s Trade Shift

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New trade data from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) reveals a small but telling shift in the export profile of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In the first quarter of 2026 (January-March), exports to China rose 25% year-on-year, the fastest growth among the region’s major trading partners. Total LAC exports rebounded strongly, by almost 16%, and one of the engines was demand from China. As Washington and Beijing compete for influence in the region, where the trade numbers are moving is a signal neither side can ignore.

What the “Fastest Buyer” Tells Us

According to the IDB, China led in growth at 25%, followed by the rest of Asia at 24% and the European Union at 19%. Exports to the United States, the region’s largest market, grew 14%. In other words, the US remains LAC’s top export destination, while China stands out in sheer momentum.

That gap maps onto geography. US weight rests on its ties to Mexico and Central America, whereas across much of South America China has become the leading buyer, year after year. The IDB frames the figures as a notable move toward export diversification.

Tariffs and an “Unintended” Pivot

The backdrop is the US tariff pressure that intensified through 2026. As uncertainty grows over exports to the United States, some Latin American producers, pushed to diversify, find it easier to redirect goods toward the Chinese market. It is hard to deny that economic pressure has had the side effect of nudging the region closer to China.

Still, it would be premature to call a single quarter a lasting structural shift. Much of the export jump rested on strong commodities, mining (gold and copper), agribusiness (soybeans, coffee, meat) and oil, with price effects in the mix. The real test will be whether the same trend holds in the quarters ahead.

Behind the Competition

As the US and China keep competing over ports, infrastructure and the digital economy in Latin America, the trade data quietly accumulates as economic reality. The fact that the numbers are moving ahead of the geopolitical rhetoric is something neither power can afford to overlook.

It is also worth noting the other side of the ledger: on imports, the United States remains dominant. In the IDB tally, the US share of the region’s imports runs around 22%, well above China’s roughly 10%. An asymmetric pattern, exporting to China, importing from the US, characterizes Latin American trade right now.

The Author's View

Reading one quarter’s numbers as a “choice of camp” strikes me as a bit hasty. What many Latin American countries are showing is not a political decision to side with one power, but plainly pragmatic behavior: sell to whoever buys, buy from whoever sells. The surge in exports to China looks like an extension of that logic.

That said, pragmatic choices do reshape structures over time. Selling commodities to China while relying on the US for imports, including manufactured goods, could harden into a fixed asymmetry that leaves the region doubly exposed to both powers’ cycles and policies. Will the coming quarters point the same way, or is this just a temporary swing in a tariff-driven moment? It is a theme worth following with the numbers, and without the hype.

Glossary

The IDB (Inter-American Development Bank; in Spanish, Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, or BID) is the main development bank for Latin America and the Caribbean, publishing data such as its Trade Trends Estimates. LAC stands for Latin America and the Caribbean.

The surge in exports to China reflects a pragmatic logic, “whom do we trade with,” running ahead of the question of “which camp are we in.”

※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.