Keiko Fujimori will be sworn in on July 28, Peru's independence day, just over a week from now. She becomes the country's first woman president, and her government has placed mining at the centre of its economic programme. The trouble is that several figures of very different magnitudes are circulating at once. Before the inauguration, it is worth separating what is settled from what is not.
Still unsettled: the cabinet
As of July 20, not a single minister of the incoming government has been formally announced. Peruvian law sets no deadline for naming a cabinet; it only needs to be in place by inauguration day. Three names are being floated for president of the Council of Ministers, the prime-ministerial post: Luis Galarreta, the party's secretary general and first vice-president-elect; Luis Carranza, a former finance minister; and Edgardo Mosqueira, a former minister of the presidency.
Carranza is also reported as the leading candidate for the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). That remains speculation rather than a confirmed appointment. When a purported cabinet list circulated on social media, Fuerza Popular's press office denied its contents. Carranza served roughly three years as finance minister under Alan García between 2006 and 2009, and markets are watching his name as shorthand for a technocratic line — but beyond that, the slate is blank.
$64 billion and $6.3 billion are different things
The Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM) published its 2026 Mining Investment Portfolio in June: 66 projects across 19 regions, worth US$64.075 billion, up 1.7% from the October 2025 update. Copper and molybdenum dominate, concentrated in the southern Andean corridor. Named projects include Zafranal ($1.9bn), Conga ($4.8bn), El Galeno ($3.5bn) and Hierro Apurímac ($2.9bn).
Separately, Energy and Mines Minister Waldir Ayasta told the 27th World Mining Congress in Lima that mining investment would come to around US$6.3 billion in 2026. That is money actually spent this year — roughly a tenth of the portfolio total. One number sums up everything that might be built over a decade; the other is this year's cash. They travel together and are easily merged into a phantom "$63 billion", so it pays to keep them apart.
The pledges: fast-track permits, tax breaks, and 40% of the canon
Fuerza Popular's 2026–2031 platform rests on three mining planks: reforming the General Mining Law with a fast-track route for "strategic projects", tax incentives for reinvested profits, and a digital single window for permits, interoperable with the tax agency SUNAT, the water authority ANA, and regional governments.
The contested piece is the proposal to hand up to 40% of the mining canon directly to residents of extraction zones. The canon is not a royalty: it is the share of corporate income tax paid by mining firms that already flows back to regional governments and public universities. In other words, the money is being redirected, not created. The Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE) warns this amounts to abandoning public-investment reform, and the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) questions the sustainability of funding direct transfers from a volatile, finite revenue stream. The mining canon came to S/6.992 billion in 2025.
A warning issued on July 16
On July 16, days before the handover, Peru's Observatory of Mining Conflicts published an analysis warning that the incoming government's mining push could trigger fresh protest. The reasoning is straightforward: most of Peru's main mining regions did not vote for Fujimori. The ombudsman counts roughly 200 active social conflicts, 64 of them tied to mining and the environment.
Two projects were named: Tía María (Southern Copper, $1.8bn, cleared to begin operating in 2027) and Río Blanco, held by China's Zijin Mining. David Velazco of the NGO Fedepaz says both could face opposition. Prior consultation with Indigenous peoples rests on ILO Convention 169 and applies to authorisations such as the start of exploration or extraction. How "streamlining" is meant to coexist with that procedure has not been spelled out. The way high copper and gold prices have pulled illegal operators along with legal ones is covered here, and the same tension runs through Amazon gold mining.
The congressional ceiling
Execution depends on Congress. The April 12 legislative election was Peru's first bicameral vote since 1990. Fuerza Popular emerged as the largest bloc with 22 of 60 Senate seats and 41 of 130 in the Chamber of Deputies — a plurality in both, a majority in neither. Amending the mining law or changing how the canon is distributed both require legislation. Together with a presidential race decided by about 44,000 votes (reported here) and the three simultaneous challenges waiting on day one (reported here), the starting position is narrow by any arithmetic.
My reading
The most useful habit here is to read "pipeline total" and "annual investment" as separate quantities. The $64 billion includes projects at prefeasibility, projects without environmental clearance, and projects that may never be built. What actually moves this year is $6.3 billion. If you want to judge the first year of this government, count the projects that reach construction and what they are worth — not the headline sum.
The canon proposal is the other thing worth watching closely. Handing resource revenue straight to residents has precedents, but a scheme like the Alaska Permanent Fund distributes investment income, not the principal. Would the design survive a year when copper prices fall and payments halve? Peru has its own cautionary tale: the voluntary mining contribution known as the óbolo minero, in place from 2006 to 2011, collected S/2.282 billion over five years but disbursed only a third of it before being replaced with mandatory taxation.
There is a tailwind. In its June report, the central bank (BCRP) raised its 2026 growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.4%. Three things to watch: who is named to the finance ministry around July 28, the confidence vote expected in Congress in August, and MINEM's updated list of construction-stage projects later this year. Only when all three line up will it be clear whether $64 billion is more than a number.
Glossary
canon minero — the share of mining companies' corporate income tax redistributed to regional governments and public universities in producing areas. regalía minera — the mining royalty, a separate levy from the canon. consulta previa — prior consultation with Indigenous peoples under ILO Convention 169. cartera de proyectos — the project portfolio, or investment pipeline.
$64 billion is a decade of maybes. $6.3 billion is this year. Judge the first year on the second number.
References
- Ministro Ayasta: Inversiones mineras bordearán los US$ 6,300 millones al cierre de 2026 | MINEM（gob.pe） — gob.pe
- Cartera de Proyectos de Inversión Minera 2026: Perú impulsará 66 proyectos por US$64.075 millones | La República — larepublica.pe
- ¿Cuál es la fecha máxima para que Keiko Fujimori anuncie a su gabinete ministerial? | Infobae（2026-07-01） — infobae.com
- Fujimori's mining push could spur unrest in Peru, study says | Mining Weekly（2026-07-15） — miningweekly.com
- El plan Fujimori: Fuerza Popular insiste con repartir dinero del canon de mano en mano | Infobae — infobae.com
- Reporte de Inflación — Junio 2026 | Banco Central de Reserva del Perú — bcrp.gob.pe
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.