Half a year is nearly up since Maduro was detained on January 3, 2026, and Delcy Rodriguez became interim president. Even as political turmoil continues, the oil sector is quietly coming back to life.
A Recovery Not Seen in 19 Years
International oil-market reports put Venezuela’s crude output at around 1.1 million barrels a day. That is well up from the collapse level at the end of the Maduro era, though still far from the peak (over 3.3 million bpd in the late 1990s). Still, the change is clear: since the Rodriguez government took office, exports to the U.S. are reported up about 192% from the prior-year average. Chevron has kept operating under a special license, and Spain’s Repsol, Italy’s Eni and France’s Maurel & Prom have moved to raise output through joint ventures.
“The Best Environment in Years”
From the private sector come voices that 2026 is the most favorable macro environment in years for doing business in Venezuela. Better access to foreign currency, a steadier exchange rate and rising domestic demand have combined, and investment is stirring beyond oil too. Some forecasts see GDP growing up to 12% in 2026, but these are press-based estimates, and the government’s official statistics have long lacked credibility. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has laid out a three-stage roadmap of stabilization, reconstruction and transition, placing major sanctions relief as the first stage.
The Problems Beneath the Optimism
Whether the momentum lasts depends on several unresolved issues. The lack of legal stability remains a large barrier for foreign capital, and PDVSA’s facilities have aged through years of underinvestment. Normalizing public finances and easing banking-transaction limits also remain practical constraints. Politically, over 400 political prisoners are reported still held.
Even as the phrase “democratic transition” is used, much of the Maduro-era power structure has been preserved. Closing the gap between the recovery story investors imagine and the political reality on the ground will take time. Oil is coming back. The question is whether institutions can be rebuilt beyond it.
If oil returns but the rebuilding of democratic institutions does not keep pace, Venezuela’s recovery will again stand on fragile ground.
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References
- Venezuela's Economy Is Accelerating, But Will Depend on More Than Oil – Americas Quarterly — americasquarterly.org
- Venezuela: The Post-Maduro Oil, Gas and Mining Outlook – Americas Quarterly — americasquarterly.org
- US pushes for dramatic increase in Venezuela oil output amid thaw in ties – Reuters/Malay Mail (2026-02-12) — malaymail.com
- Two months without Maduro: Democratic transition or authoritarian adaptation? – WOLA — wola.org
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.