According to satellite data released on July 10 by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE), deforestation in the Amazon region in the first half of 2026 (January to June) totaled 1,295 square kilometers, down 38% from the same period last year. It is the lowest level in a decade, since 2016. Alongside the data release, President Lula reaffirmed his pledge to bring illegal deforestation to zero by 2030.
What happened
In 2022, under the Bolsonaro administration, the Amazon lost an area of forest equivalent to 13 times the size of New York City. Since Lula returned to office in 2023, sustained budget injections into the federal environmental police (IBAMA), the expansion of dedicated enforcement units, and stiffer penalties for environmental crimes brought the reduction to roughly 50% in the first year alone. This latest figure of 1,295 square kilometers sits on the extension of that downward trend.
Environment Minister Marina Silva said that if this trajectory continues, Brazil could achieve the lowest annual figure since records began in 1988 (according to press reports).
Context: the reality that the clear-cutting figure does not show
That said, what this INPE statistic measures is "new clear-cutting." Damage from fires, selective logging, and drought-induced die-off, known as "degradation" (degradação), is tallied separately. Researchers point out that degradation now extends across roughly 40% of the Amazon, and in terms of sheer area it is said to exceed clear-cutting.
The decline in clear-cutting is a real improvement in itself. But "the forest not being cut down" and "the forest being healthy" are two different things, and the full picture of the Amazon is more complicated than the number.
The question: El Niño, the dry-season variable
The biggest risk this year is the climate. Meteorological agencies put the probability of an El Niño forming in 2026 as high, with the possibility that it persists at least through the end of the year (see my earlier piece on the WMO's warning). El Niño brings dryness to the Amazon basin and lowers river levels. If the dry season (July to October) coincides with a full-fledged El Niño, the conditions for large-scale wildfires will be in place, and the gains accumulated in the first half could reverse on paper. I covered the outlook for this year's fire season in an earlier article.
My perspective
Whenever I read environmental data, the thing I always try to keep in mind is the design question: what exactly does this number measure? Clear-cut area can be measured directly by satellite and is the indicator where policy effects show up most readily. Degradation, by contrast, is hard to define and hard to measure, and it rarely makes the headlines. The bright number, "a 10-year low," and the dark observation, "degradation exceeds clear-cutting in scale," are not contradictory; they are measuring different things.
What to watch is the trend in INPE's monthly rapid alerts (DETER) once the dry season begins, and the consolidated annual figure due around November. Whether the "10-year low" still holds after the dry season and the wildfire season have passed — that is where the answer will be checked.
Glossary
desmatamento = Portuguese for "deforestation, forest clearing." degradação = "degradation," damage to the forest that falls short of clear-cutting. PRODES/DETER = the satellite monitoring systems operated by INPE: PRODES for consolidated annual statistics and DETER for monthly rapid alerts.
The half-year with the least cutting in a decade. Whether it was also the safest half-year for the Amazon lies outside the numbers.
References
- Under Lula, Amazon deforestation falls to lowest level in a decade | Al Jazeera — aljazeera.com
- Amazon rainforest deforestation at 10-year low | UPI — upi.com
- Brazil deforestation data | Phys.org — phys.org
- Amazon deforestation on pace to be the lowest on record | Mongabay — mongabay.com
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.