Lula Widens His Lead Again
in Brazil's Presidential Race

← Back to Latin America News

The race for Brazil's presidency, with a first round set for October 4, shifted in June. A newly released poll shows incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva winning about 49 percent in a hypothetical runoff, about 12.5 points ahead of his rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. After a stretch in April when Lula briefly fell behind in several surveys, this rebound is a clear relief for his camp. Still, three and a half months is a long time, and the situation is far from settled.

What Happened

The CNT/MDA poll released on June 16 put Lula at about 49.3 percent and Flavio Bolsonaro at about 36.8 percent in a simulated runoff, a gap of roughly 12.5 points. The 49.3 percent figure is strictly a simulated-runoff number, not projected first-round support. Such polls also carry a margin of error (±2.2 points in this survey), so nothing should be read as fixed. Even so, the shift back toward a Lula advantage after months of a tight race is the main signal this poll sends.

Background

Former President Jair Bolsonaro, who lost the 2022 election, was found by Brazil's Supreme Federal Court to have been involved in an attempted coup and was imprisoned in 2025. Barred from running for office until 2030, the right-wing Liberal Party fielded his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, as its candidate. He runs as heir to his father's conservative base, though he is widely seen as lacking his father's personal mobilizing power. Paradoxically, the fact of an imprisoned father has made supporters' anger visible and turned it into a rallying point for the right.

The Debate / Contrast

In a Datafolha poll in early December, Lula led 51 percent to Flavio's 36 in a runoff scenario, a 15-point gap (a Paraná Pesquisas poll late that month had it narrower, 44.1 to 41.0, so the spread across surveys is fairly wide). But early this year, persistent inflation and frustration over economic inequality strengthened the headwinds against his government, and in April several polls put Flavio ahead on paper for the first time. Since then, gains in jobs and social policy have begun to be reassessed, and another June poll again showed Lula ahead in first-round scenarios, with his runoff margin recovering as well.

The two central issues are security and the economy. The Flavio camp leads with law and order and fiscal discipline, trying to consolidate the Bolsonaro base. Lula's side builds on its record of social programs and industrial policy, aiming to win over the middle class. How much third candidates such as Romeu Zema, former governor of Minas Gerais, and Ronaldo Caiado, former governor of Goias, gather in the first round is another variable that will shape who advances. Because voting is compulsory in Brazil, the movement of independent and low-interest voters tends to decide the final result. With the October 25 runoff in view, this election has only just begun.

The Author's View

What I most want to watch in this race is that the axis moving public opinion is not just personality but the track record of social policy. The headwinds against Lula early this year were rooted in everyday experiences of inflation and inequality. Reporting suggests the swing back came because voters reassessed jobs and social programs. Watching Latin American politics, I keep encountering moments where the evaluation of welfare and redistribution becomes a major issue, and where the lived sense of daily life translates directly into votes.

Social security and jobs policy can look unremarkable in the figures yet reliably shape people's daily lives. That is why I prefer to judge a policy not by flashy slogans but by whether it actually reaches the ground. In Brazil's case, the key over the next three and a half months seems to be how far Lula's record on social programs connects to voters' lived experience, and how far Flavio's "law and order" and "fiscal discipline" can absorb their anxieties. What finally counts, I believe, is the felt reality of what has reached people's daily lives.

Glossary

A runoff is a second vote held between the top two candidates when no one wins a majority in the first round. Brazil's presidential election uses this two-stage system, with the first round on October 4 and the runoff on October 25. Voting is also compulsory in the country for citizens aged 18 to under 70, and abstention generally involves a procedure or a small penalty.

Whether the son can stand on the political ground his father built — that is the biggest question facing Brazil right now.

※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.