The U.S. or China?
A Region That Won't Choose

← Back to Latin America News

On December 10, 2025, China unveiled its third policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean, framing engagement around five programs for a shared future: solidarity, development, civilization, peace, and people-to-people exchange. The Trump administration answered by declaring it would let no hostile foreign power into the Americas. Yet the region has not simply swallowed the binary of the U.S. or China.

China Turns Engagement Into Institutions

The paper aims to upgrade China's presence from opportunistic to institutional. Its reach already runs through infrastructure lending, digital technology, and security cooperation, etched deep into the region's economic map. In a December 2025 analysis, the U.S. think tank CSIS concluded that great-power competition in Latin America is only just beginning.

Honduras and the Pain of Picking

Honduras cut ties with Taiwan for China in 2023. Its shrimp exports to Taiwan then crashed from about 106 million dollars in 2022 to roughly 16 million in 2025, and the promised Chinese market never filled the gap: Taiwan had bought more than 29 million pounds in 2022, while China took only about 750,000 pounds in 2025. Processing plants closed one after another, costing a reported 25,000-plus jobs, direct and indirect. A Trump-aligned president who took office in January 2026 ordered a review of the deals with Beijing. Industry pulling diplomacy back into line is a pattern other capitals are now watching closely.

The Reality of Cannot Be Excluded

The Peterson Institute for International Economics described the region as caught in a vise between the Trump Corollary and China's policy paper. In a June 8, 2026 essay, Foreign Policy argued that the United States cannot exclude China from Latin America, and should not try.

When the Shield of the Americas summit convened in Miami in March 2026, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia — three left-leaning governments that together account for more than half of the region's GDP — were not invited. A framework that gathers only the governments already aligned with Washington cannot pull the whole region onto one side. The push to force an either-or sits badly against the region's real industry and diplomacy.

No country plans to choose between the two. Whether that reads as a problem or as wisdom depends on who is asking.

※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.