On December 10, 2025, China unveiled its third policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean, framing engagement around five programs for a shared future: solidarity, development, civilization, peace, and people-to-people exchange. The Trump administration answered by declaring it would let no hostile foreign power into the Americas. Yet the region has not simply swallowed the binary of the U.S. or China.
China Turns Engagement Into Institutions
The paper aims to upgrade China's presence from opportunistic to institutional. Its reach already runs through infrastructure lending, digital technology, and security cooperation, etched deep into the region's economic map. In a February 2026 analysis, the U.S. think tank CSIS concluded that great-power competition in Latin America is only just beginning.
Honduras and the Pain of Picking
Honduras cut ties with Taiwan for China in 2023. Its shrimp exports then crashed from over 100 million dollars to 16 million, costing more than 25,000 jobs, as the promised Chinese market failed to open. A Trump-aligned president who took office in January 2026 ordered a review of the deals with Beijing. Industry pulling diplomacy back into line is a pattern other capitals are now watching closely.
The Reality of Cannot Be Excluded
The Peterson Institute for International Economics described the region as caught in a vise between the Trump Corollary and China's policy paper. In a June 8, 2026 essay, Foreign Policy argued that the United States cannot exclude China from Latin America, and should not try.
Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia all skipped the Shield of the Americas summit, refusing to declare an explicit side. The push to force an either-or sits badly against the region's real industry and diplomacy. For now, declining to choose is itself the answer.
No country plans to choose between the two. Whether that reads as a problem or as wisdom depends on who is asking.
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References
- China's Third Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean – CSIS — csis.org
- The U.S. Can't Exclude China From Latin America – Foreign Policy — foreignpolicy.com
- Latin America in a vise: The "Trump Corollary" vs. China's 2025 policy paper – PIIE — piie.com
- Full text: China's Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean – Chinese Government — english.gov.cn
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.