Only about a decade ago, Ecuador was described as relatively safe by Latin American standards. Today it is one of the most violent countries in the region. Its 2025 homicide rate hit a record 51 per 100,000, the worst in Latin America for a third consecutive year. Becoming a hub on drug-trafficking routes and the takeover of prisons by gangs are among the overlapping causes; security collapsed fast.
What the numbers say
A rate of 51 per 100,000 tops the previous peak of 46 in 2023. From January to May 2025 alone, more than 1,300 gang-violence events were recorded — over 60% more than the same period a year earlier. The deterioration has crept into daily life, especially around the port city of Guayaquil.
Noboa's hard line
President Daniel Noboa has labeled gangs "terrorist organizations" and effectively declared "war" on 22 of them. Alongside states of emergency and military deployment, in March 2026 he imposed a nightly curfew (11 p.m.–5 a.m.) from the 15th to the 31st in four provinces including Guayas. It is close to the Bukele-style approach in El Salvador.
More striking is the partnership with the United States. On March 6, 2026, with direct US participation, "Operation Total Extermination" was carried out and FARC-dissident group Comandos de la Frontera — accused of drug smuggling along the Colombian border — was reportedly struck. Foreign military force is now stepping into a domestic security problem.
The dilemma of the hard line
Tough crackdowns can move the numbers in the short term, and approval tends to rise — as it did under Bukele. But heavy-handed power carries side effects. Human-rights groups and some reporting flag the normalization of emergency rule, rights violations and pressure on the opposition. How to reconcile restoring security with the rule of law and human rights is the question.
And there is the root. Beneath the violence lie poverty, the lack of jobs for young people, and dependence on the smuggling economy. Striking the organizations with army and police is necessary, but it won't turn off the tap by itself. Without help on the social side — education and jobs — another group fills the vacuum.
It reaches the whole region
Ecuador's crisis doesn't stop at its borders. Drug flows, migration and cross-border organized crime connect to Colombia, Peru and countries farther north — which is why the US is involved. How long the hard-line course holds, and at what cost, makes Ecuador a bellwether for security policy across Latin America.
Hitting the gangs is necessary. But on its own, the vacuum just gets filled by someone else.
References
- ACLED, "Ecuador's Noboa declared war on 22 gangs" — acleddata.com
- UPI, "Ecuador's Noboa imposes curfew in four provinces" (2026-03-03) — upi.com
- Peoples Dispatch, "Noboa promises a new security plan" (2026-01-29) — peoplesdispatch.org
- ICTJ, "Ecuador's Noboa Declares New Security State of Emergency" — ictj.org
- Wikipedia, "Ecuadorian conflict (2024–present)" — en.wikipedia.org
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.