El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has an El Niño advisory in effect: sea surface temperatures in the monitoring region are running well above normal, and the agency puts the probability of the event persisting through the 2026–27 winter at over 97%. According to the Associated Press (July 17, 2026), governments in Brazil, Colombia and Central America are reinforcing firefighting and disaster-response capacity and activating contingency plans for agriculture, energy and logistics. The biggest worry is energy supply. Latin America generates roughly 50% of its electricity from hydropower, which means drought translates directly into a power crisis.
Hydropower Dependence — and Vulnerability
Latin America's power mix is dominated by renewables, and for decades the backbone has been hydropower. Brazil generates about 50% of its electricity from dams, and Ecuador depends on hydropower for an even higher share. When rainfall drops in the dry season, reservoir levels fall — and so does generation.
Ecuador lived through the precedent in 2024. A drought described as the worst in 60 years drove reservoir levels at hydroelectric plants to extreme lows, forcing rolling blackouts of up to 8 hours a day in April and up to 14 hours from September through December. Emergency thermal generation plugged the gap, but rising fuel costs compounded the supply anxiety, and the blow to economic activity was severe. The end of scheduled outages was not declared until December 20, 2024.
Why the Second Half of 2026 Is the Real Test
El Niño's effects typically arrive with a lag. Current forecasts call for sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific to intensify into late 2026, with sustained drought and heat centered on Central America, the Caribbean and northern South America. Parts of the Amazon basin may also be drier than usual, with impacts projected across agriculture, logistics and fire risk (AP, July 17, 2026). Brazil has hired more than 4,600 additional federal firefighters for the wildfire season, and Costa Rica has drawn up a national emergency plan containing over 200 measures.
Brazil's 2026 firefighting budget is up 20% from last year. Holding the Amazon's burned area in the first half of the year to nearly 40% below the 2013–25 average is a real achievement (see our earlier report on deforestation), but if rainfall in the second half falls far short of normal, that cushion will vanish.
The Renewable Energy “Paradox”
As of 2026, more than 84% of Brazil's installed generating capacity is renewable — hydro, solar, wind and biomass. It is a number worthy of a green-power giant, but it also means the electricity supply is structurally exposed to climate swings. The rapid growth of solar and wind has eased the old over-reliance on hydro, and Brazil's wind farms conveniently peak between June and November, precisely when river levels are low. Even so, the pillar of the grid is still water.
How serious this drought risk actually becomes will hinge on rainfall from August through October. If harvests fall short, food prices rise; add a power shortfall and the pain spreads to factory output. That chain reaction — energy, agriculture, prices — could shake Latin America's economy in the second half of 2026.
The Author's Take
What Ecuador's 2024 blackouts demonstrated is a simple fact: a high share of renewables and a resilient power system are not the same thing. In the decarbonization story, hydropower is a star pupil; in the climate-change story, it is the power source most at the mercy of the weather. How much a country has invested in solar, battery storage and grid decentralization will show up as the difference in damage when the same drought hits.
Three indicators are worth watching: NOAA's monthly El Niño advisories, the reservoir levels published by Brazil's national grid operator (ONS), and rainfall from August through October. If all three deteriorate together, that is the moment a repeat of Ecuador 2024 becomes a realistic prospect.
Glossary
El Niño = a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that reshapes weather patterns worldwide. ENSO = El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the umbrella term for the cycle that includes both El Niño and La Niña. Apagón = Spanish for "blackout," a word that dominated headlines during Ecuador's crisis.
The shift to renewables is the right direction — but until the climate itself stabilizes, reliable electricity will remain hostage to how much water is in the reservoirs.
References
- Latin American governments prepare for El Nino as drought, floods and heat loom | AP (WLRN) — wlrn.org
- El Nino Is Back: What a Hotter, Drier 2026 Means for Latin America | The Rio Times — riotimesonline.com
- Amazon deforestation falls to 10-year low in first half of 2026 | Mongabay — news.mongabay.com
- Brazil Renewable Energy 2026: Grid Hits 85% Green | The Rio Times — riotimesonline.com
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion | NOAA CPC — cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.