In June 2026, Mexico’s intentional homicides hit their lowest level since 2015, an 11-year low. According to a security report released on July 14 (SESNSP/SSPC), the daily homicide count fell 48% from September 2024 (86.9 a day) — the last full month of the López Obrador administration and the peak — to June 2026 (45.4 a day); the year-over-year drop is 32.5%, and the first-half 2026 total is down 30.1% from a year earlier. In a country where security is a recurring election issue, it is a number the government cannot ignore.
What drove it down
The Sheinbaum government’s security strategy continues the line of her predecessor, López Obrador, while combining field deployment of the National Guard (Guardia Nacional) with stronger intelligence and investigative capacity. Nationwide, high-impact crime overall fell about 32% (September 2024 to June 2026), and the decline extends beyond homicide to kidnapping and armed robbery. In Michoacán — long seen as CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel) territory — the daily homicide average fell 46% over the current administration (January 2025 to June 2026), though it ticked back up in June alone.
The government credits an intelligence-sharing framework across federal, state and municipal levels, saying it prioritizes resources on arresting the leaders it calls “generators of violence” in order to prevent organizations from reconstituting.
The stubborn problem of extortion
Yet against the bright numbers, Sheinbaum herself, in an event marking her first year in office, admitted that “the one crime we have not brought down is extortion.” Extortion targets small businesses, market vendors and transport operators across the country, and it weighs heavily on how safe people feel.
A “national anti-extortion strategy” run from July 2025 to June 2026 reported detaining 1,674 suspects. It combined closer coordination with federal prosecutors, the 089 anonymous tip line, the freezing of extortion-linked accounts and integrated intelligence, producing real arrest numbers — but on the ground, people note that “arrests are quickly followed by fresh recruits.” During an early-July visit to Michoacán, uprooting extortion was repeatedly named as the top priority.
How to read the gap between data and lived experience
The drop in homicides is a statistical fact and a valid starting point for evaluating policy. Extortion and threats, however, are crimes victims often do not report for fear of retaliation, so they barely surface in official statistics. If the gains from improved security reach only some groups and not the most vulnerable, the gap between the numbers and lived experience becomes the next political risk.
June 2027 brings midterm elections for the federal Congress, renewing the full Chamber of Deputies. The governing MORENA will foreground its security record, but extortion is almost certain to become a line of attack. The numbers improved. Whether people feel “safer” is a separate question — and what to watch is less the homicide trend itself than how far the under-reported harm of extortion becomes visible.
A fall in homicides is only a starting point. As long as extortion persists, no one can call the security gains complete.
References
- Sheinbaum destaca reducción de 48% en homicidios dolosos; June 2026, lowest since 2015 | Vanguardia — vanguardia.com.mx
- Principal objetivo en Michoacán, reducir la extorsión: Sheinbaum | La Jornada — jornada.com.mx
- Sheinbaum identifies curbing extortion as a top security challenge for 2026 | Mexico News Daily — mexiconewsdaily.com
- The Hole in Mexico's Security Strategy | Foreign Affairs — foreignaffairs.com
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.