A Report Card for Year Two of Milei
What the IMF Shows of FX Reform

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On May 21, 2026, the IMF completed the second review of its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with Argentina, wrapping up the 2026 Article IV consultation the same day. As an outside assessment of whether support exceeding $47 billion is working, the result is worth watching.

The Shape of the Program

The IMF board approved this EFF on April 11, 2025. It runs to about $21 billion (SDR 15.267 billion, 479% of quota) over 48 months — among the largest in IMF history. It asked for three pillars: keeping a fiscal surplus, making the exchange rate flexible (removing FX controls), and rebuilding reserves.

Where the FX Reform Stands

President Milei won at the end of 2023 on a promise of dollarization — scrapping the peso for the dollar as legal tender — yet two-plus years in, dollarization has not happened. Following the 2025 IMF agreement, the line shifted toward gradual FX liberalization. From early 2026, the central bank introduced a band for the peso that widens in step with inflation, and most FX controls have been removed. The long-term goal is convergence to currency competition, where peso and dollar coexist and the market chooses; the IMF reads this as close to the systems of Peru and Uruguay.

What the Numbers Say

The fall in inflation is striking. Monthly inflation of 12.8% before Milei took office dropped to 2.1% by the end of 2025. On an annual basis it stood at 31.8% as of November 2025, the lowest in over seven years. Against the more than 200% of late 2023, the figures alone are dramatic. Reserves are being rebuilt too, with the IMF asking for net reserves to rise by at least $8 billion in 2026.

The Pain That Remains

Behind the achievement of lowering inflation, the pain of the downturn is piling up: real erosion of pensions and social security, shrinking public services, and unemployment from corporate restructuring — all side effects prescribed by fiscal consolidation. Real GDP is expected to grow more than 3% in 2026, but recovery from inequality and poverty takes time. The second review recognized the reform's progress. Yet with October's midterms approaching, whether the government can keep its discipline is not yet clear.

The true worth of a reform praised as a model case is tested by whether, past the improving numbers, daily life comes back.

※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.