On January 3, U.S. special forces detained Nicolas Maduro and moved him to New York, acting on a federal drug-trafficking indictment. Two days later, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president, the first time a woman has held the office in Venezuela. Five months have passed. The move toward democracy that many hoped for has not begun. Following the story over these months, one idea kept nagging at me: a transition and a normalization are not the same thing.
The number two simply became number one
Rodriguez was Maduro's vice president. The system's second-in-command slid straight into the top seat. The political elite built on Chavismo has not changed. Government agencies, the security apparatus, and the chain of command at the state oil company PDVSA all carry over the structure of the Maduro years. The International Crisis Group called what happened a transaction, not a transition. When the name at the top changes but the organization beneath stays whole, it is fair to ask what actually shifted.
What 'we will absolutely hold elections' really means
In a February 12 NBC interview, Rodriguez said she would absolutely hold free and fair elections. The timeline, though, stays vague. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged that preparing for a vote would take nine to ten months. Working backward, even the best case puts an election around mid-2027. For opposition figure and Nobel Peace laureate Maria Corina Machado, this is awkward. The Trump administration has treated Rodriguez as its effective interlocutor and left Machado off center stage. The choice of partner sets the pace of any democratic opening.
The phrase 'run Venezuela'
Trump declared that the United States would be involved in running Venezuela for a period. Oil revenue has been steered through U.S.-controlled accounts, and influence continues through sanctions relief and the flow of funds. Yet there is no stated end condition for that management, and no roadmap to democracy. Americas Quarterly analyzed that Rodriguez chose normalization as her exit. Stabilize the economy and break the international isolation first, before rushing to a vote. That is the current government's order of priorities.
Same question, new questioners
Force democracy from outside, or change it slowly from within. The underlying question about Venezuela has not changed since the Maduro era. What changed is only the cast of people asking it. A military operation swapped out the president, a woman reached the top for the first time, and still the PDVSA org chart and the election calendar have not moved. Five months should have been enough time to begin a transition.
The face of the government has changed, but Venezuela's institutions have not been swapped out at all.
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References
- Normalization Without Transition: Delcy Rodríguez's Playbook | Americas Quarterly — americasquarterly.org
- Delcy Rodriguez sworn in as Venezuela's president after Maduro abduction | Al Jazeera — aljazeera.com
- Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition? | International Crisis Group — crisisgroup.org
- Opinion | Where Is Venezuela's Democratic Transition? | The Washington Post — washingtonpost.com
- Venezuela's interim leader navigates U.S. demands, Chavista loyalty | NPR — npr.org
※ This article is the author’s commentary based on public information. Please confirm the latest figures, dates and procedures with governments and primary sources. Quotations are kept minimal and sources are cited.